Not Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi Is The Popular Choice Now, Suggests Lokniti-CSDS Survey

The Lokniti-CSDS Mood of the Nation Survey Round 3 states that Congress president Rahul Gandhi has gained favorability over PM Narendra Modi in many departments. Gandhi has gained prominence, especially among Dalits and Adivasis, according to the survey. The latest survey highlights that Modi government’s policies are repelling people further.

The key points of CSDS Survey are:

1) A strong anti-incumbency has set in:

In 175 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across 19 states, nearly half of the total 15,859 respondents said Modi government does not merit another opportunity to govern India.

The anti-Modi government sentiment was found to be strong among the religious minorities. There were less than two among every five people (39 per cent) who thought he deserved a second inning, with the rest being non-committal.

The NDA as a whole (BJP and its allies put together) is netting about 37 per cent of the total vote currently- a drop of three percentage points since January and eight points since May 2017.

2) A closer look at the states:

In South India, BJP has secured 18 per cent of votes in all five states put together. In northern India, its likeness has gone down from 45 per cent in January to 39 per cent currently. In Uttar Pradesh too the party saw a major decline of 8 per cent in preference. In Central India, however, NDA is ahead of UPA but in major states like Gujarat, there is a surge for Congress. Congress is also doing better in Madhya Pradesh at the Lok Sabha and Assembly election level. In Jharkhand and Assam also Congress has seen a revival especially due to the new Citizenship Amendment bill.

3) Modi’s economic policies have been heavily criticised

Four years of Modi have passed and unemployment and taxes under GST seem to agitate many Indians. The NDA government’s claims of ‘Sabka Saath Sabka Vikaas’ is not being bought by voters anymore. Only 30 per cent or three in every 10 were found to be of the opinion that development has been for all sections. In January survey this figure had been at 39 per cent. They have become more unpopular among farmers and traders. NDA’s fall amongst farmers and traders have been reaped by the regional parties (barring UPA) who have gotten five points extra this time from January.

4) A huge chunk of Dalits have deserted BJP

Three in five Dalits (60 per cent) and over half the Adivasis (54 per cent) said that they were dissatisfied with the concern shown by Modi government towards growing crimes and atrocities against them. The dilution of the Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribes Prevent of Atrocities Act 1989 by the Supreme Court was another reason for the anti-BJP sentiment rising.

5) Rahul Gandhi and Modi liked in equal measure

Amongst Dalits and Adivasis, Gandhi showed a lead. Middle-aged and elderly voters also preferred him more. But the survey also measured likeability and found that Rahul and Modi are liked equally. If we see the dislike figures, then Gandhi seems to be liked more. Modi as PM was preferred by 25 per cent Dalits compared to 35 per cent earlier and 37 per cent Adivasis as against 42 per cent in January. Rahul showed a steep rise as a PM preference. Among Dalits 18 per cent choose him as against 25 per cent in January and among Adivasis 37 per cent preferred him compared to 27 per cent earlier.

6) Dissatisfaction on government performance has increased all over the country

The percentage of dissatisfied people have gone up from 27 percent in January to 47 percent now- a 20 point increase in just five months. There is a 2:1 ratio of dissatisfied and satisfied.

On humanity front also Modi loses

After Kathua rape case, Unnao rape case and Judge Loya verdict people said that crimes were also high. Although the survey says it does not play a major role in deciding votes but shows a greater sense of despondency amongst voters. There were 48 per cent who were pessimistic about the country’s future. 44 per cent said that “country is going in the wrong direction”.