BJP’s Lok Sabha Numbers Slip To 271

The Karnataka polls have ended and Janata Dal (Secular)’s HD Kumaraswamy is set to be sworn-in on Wednesday.

But the BJP’s woes have not ended. Even before 2019, it is facing an uphill task as far as its Lok Sabha numbers are concerned.

The winning number of 282 Lok Sabha seats, which it was rightfully proud of four years ago, has experienced deep attrition.

BJP’s two MPs, BS Yeddyurappa and B Sriramulu resigned from the Lok Sabha on Saturday to be able to vote as MLAs in Karnataka Vidhan Souda. This, adding to the loss of five MPs in by polls held just this year, means the BJP has slipped below the psychologically significant tally of 272.

The effective strength of the House of the People is lower that 543, with seven vacancies, so this means that they are still in a majority, as the majority mark in the new situation is just 269. The seat of the Speaker, Sumitra Mahajan, is not counted under the BJP.

But with by polls dues later this month, in Kairana in UP and Palghar in Maharashtra and losses expected in both the seats, the BJP is restive as this could mean they lose their single-party majority now.

In Kairana, the BJP faces a very tough election, with a unique combination of a united opposition, the BSP and Congress set to look the other way, and an SP woman candidate being supported by SP and RLD, as she is to contest on the RLD symbol.

In Palghar, in Maharashtra, the bypoll slated for the same day spells there is trouble for BJP as it has allowed Shiv Sena to provide it with another flashpoint to oppose the BJP.

What is worrying the BJP is that if it loses both bypolls, it will actually slip to the precarious 269 mark, out of an effective Lok Sabha of 536 MPs.

There are three major concerns the BJP has.

The first is the game of perceptions, where the BJP loses majorly, with the idea of Modi’s and the BJP’s invincibility being turned on its head. Losing all polls, to anyone who stands against them, cannot be a good card to go into the 2019 campaign with.

Secondly, the BJP’s shrivelling emboldens the NDA allies. Shiv Sena is already making loud noises and trouble in the second-largest state in the country, Maharashtra. The Telugu Desam has already walked, the AIADMK is not keen to make public its tacit settling into the NDA tent, the JD(S) is with the Congress for now. So for the BJP to emerge as the behemoth it was in 2014, allies are required but the message they get with a shrinking BJP does not help the BJP.

Thirdly, those who have remained steadfast against the BJP, the Congress and the Left have no-confidence motions in place and while the BJP was able to side-step discussion on it in the Budget session, they would be emboldened.

Even standing on the precipice of 269, should it lose Kairana and Palghar, the BJP would not be comfortable. Two of its high-profile MPs, Shatrughan Sinha and Kirti Azad have made their dissent with the BJP more than public. A third, an MP in UP, Savitri Bai Phoole appears to be in no mood to walk with the BJP. Calling all MPs to be on the side of the party may not be a cakewalk.

On May 16, 2014, the BJP won 282 seats. It is now down to 271.